ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Sebastian Ofner

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 22:30

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

31.66%

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

68.34%

Average Odds

2.28 / 1.59

Market probability

41.09% / 58.91%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Ofner is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1704 vs 1464), a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1651) and more wins on hard courts (77 vs 54).

Player Comparison

1651.1 Elo 1676.8

1464.5 Elo (surface) 1703.8

128 Wins 104

45 Wins (surface) 30

5 Last 15 form 5

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 0.887

90 Rank 126

36.5 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sebastian Ofner

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Sebastian Ofner

1st Serve In %

56.2%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Sebastian Ofner

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

40.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 2 – 0 Sebastian Ofner

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Marco Trungelliti #90

Sebastian Ofner #126

4-6 6-4 7-6

3 Aces 5

10 Double Faults 8

117 Service Points 103

69 First Serve In 54

50 First Serve Won 35

19 Second Serve Won 25

7 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 10

17 Winners 23

46 Unforced Errors 68

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Hamburg · 2024-07-15

R32

Marco Trungelliti #151

Sebastian Ofner #50

6-1 4-3 RET

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 48

32 First Serve In 27

21 First Serve Won 16

14 Second Serve Won 11

8 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Istanbul · 2018-04-30

Q1

Marco Trungelliti #186

Sebastian Ofner #139

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

55 Service Points 47

34 First Serve In 25

25 First Serve Won 19

13 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 3