ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 09:05

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

24.49%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

75.51%

Average Odds

2.72 / 1.45

Market probability

34.77% / 65.23%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1810 vs 1642), a stronger serve (66.7% vs 59.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1841 vs 1807).

Player Comparison

1807.1 Elo 1841.3

1641.6 Elo (surface) 1810.5

133 Wins 20

50 Wins (surface) 16

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.957 Dominance ratio 0.962

90 Rank 137

36.7 Age 20.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

57.0%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Clay Marrakech · 2026-03-30

Q2

Marco Trungelliti #117

Rei Sakamoto #166

7-6(8) 6-4

4 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 76

46 First Serve In 53

31 First Serve Won 35

22 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction