ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

40.37%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

59.63%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.13

Market probability

56.05% / 43.95%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolas Mejia is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1542 vs 1476) and a stronger return game (38.5% vs 35.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1659.9 Elo 1656.2

1476.4 Elo (surface) 1542.4

128 Wins 17

45 Wins (surface) 7

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.856 Dominance ratio 1.118

91 Rank 131

36.5 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

56.2%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 0 – 0 Nicolas Mejia

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Nicolas Mejia #131

Marco Trungelliti #91

7-6 3-6 6-1

11 Aces 7

11 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 103

39 First Serve In 68

33 First Serve Won 49

20 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction