ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Kei Nishikori

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 2. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

24.72%

Kei Nishikori

Japan

75.28%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.61

Market probability

42.15% / 57.85%

Why This Prediction?

Kei Nishikori is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1797 vs 1464), a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1651) and more wins on hard courts (330 vs 45).

Player Comparison

1651.1 Elo 1781.9

1464.5 Elo (surface) 1796.7

128 Wins 489

45 Wins (surface) 330

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.903 Dominance ratio 0.834

90 Rank 467

36.5 Age 36.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Kei Nishikori

1st Serve In %

56.2%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Kei Nishikori

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

48.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 0 – 1 Kei Nishikori

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 2. round

Marco Trungelliti #90

Kei Nishikori #467

4-6 7-5 6-3

3 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 6

107 Service Points 101

64 First Serve In 58

42 First Serve Won 34

16 Second Serve Won 18

13 Break Points Saved 7

19 Break Points Faced 14

19 Winners 25

35 Unforced Errors 67

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard US Open · 2019-08-26

R128

Kei Nishikori #7

Marco Trungelliti #205

6-1 4-1 RET

1 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

35 Service Points 33

20 First Serve In 14

18 First Serve Won 9

8 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marco Trungelliti vs Kei Nishikori — Prediction