ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

20.26%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

79.74%

Average Odds

3.30 / 1.33

Market probability

28.73% / 71.27%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1654), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1832 vs 1701) and a stronger serve (65.4% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1653.8 Elo 1833.4

1701.5 Elo (surface) 1831.9

127 Wins 78

73 Wins (surface) 65

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.859 Dominance ratio 0.956

95 Rank 50

36.5 Age 24.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Juan Manuel Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

56.2%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

53.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

69.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 0 – 0 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-21

1. round

Marco Trungelliti #95

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #50

6-2 6-1

1 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 7

43 Service Points 62

18 First Serve In 33

11 First Serve Won 23

7 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 5

6 Winners 27

26 Unforced Errors 22

3.3 Average Odds 1.3

Marco Trungelliti vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Prediction