ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Daniil Medvedev

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

15.89%

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

84.11%

Average Odds

5.38 / 1.15

Market probability

17.61% / 82.39%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1924 vs 1536), a higher Elo rating (1908 vs 1683) and more wins on hard courts (364 vs 48).

Player Comparison

1683.0 Elo 1907.8

1535.9 Elo (surface) 1924.5

131 Wins 486

48 Wins (surface) 364

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.934 Dominance ratio 0.963

90 Rank 6

36.5 Age 30.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Daniil Medvedev

1st Serve In %

56.2%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Daniil Medvedev

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

46.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

77.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 1 – 0 Daniil Medvedev

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Daniil Medvedev #7

Marco Trungelliti #91

6-4 7-5

1 Aces 11

0 Double Faults 9

70 Service Points 71

49 First Serve In 35

35 First Serve Won 31

8 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 3

16 Winners 20

31 Unforced Errors 27

1.1 Average Odds 5.4

Clay Todi CH · 2016-07-04

R16

Marco Trungelliti #150

Daniil Medvedev #228

6-2 7-5

2 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 5

61 Service Points 71

37 First Serve In 37

28 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marco Trungelliti vs Daniil Medvedev — Prediction