ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - quarterfinal 06:10

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

36.69%

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

63.31%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.62

Market probability

42.19% / 57.81%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Molcan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1880 vs 1814), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1700 vs 1654) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.23).

Player Comparison

1814.2 Elo 1880.3

1654.2 Elo (surface) 1699.9

133 Wins 91

50 Wins (surface) 32

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.957 Dominance ratio 1.047

88 Rank 96

36.7 Age 28.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Alex Molcan

1st Serve In %

56.2%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.6%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Alex Molcan

Break Points Saved %

58.9%

52.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

64.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

52.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti and Alex Molcan have never played each other.

Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan — Prediction