ATP tennis predict — Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP Clay Umag · R16

Predicted probability

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

29.08%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

70.92%

Average Odds

3.54 / 1.29

Market probability

26.71% / 73.29%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1858 vs 1658), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1786 vs 1709) and a stronger serve (65.5% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1658.0 Elo 1857.8

1709.3 Elo (surface) 1786.5

127 Wins 205

73 Wins (surface) 69

5 Last 15 form 11

3 Head-to-head wins 0

0.867 Dominance ratio 0.946

99 Rank 20

36.4 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1st Serve In %

56.2%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

72.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.6%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.2%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

56.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Trungelliti Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

31.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

50.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti 3 – 0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Clay Umag · 2026-07-15

R16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #20

Marco Trungelliti #99

6-4 7-5

3 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 0

73 Service Points 74

46 First Serve In 41

28 First Serve Won 28

9 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6

15 Winners 40

34 Unforced Errors 32

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Hard Us Open · 2021-08-30

R128

Marco Trungelliti #198

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #32

5-7 6-3 7-5 6-7(3) 6-4

18 Aces 10

12 Double Faults 11

180 Service Points 175

110 First Serve In 114

81 First Serve Won 76

32 Second Serve Won 28

5 Break Points Saved 12

10 Break Points Faced 19

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Biella CH · 2018-09-17

R32

Marco Trungelliti #134

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #283

4-6 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 6

103 Service Points 83

47 First Serve In 57

29 First Serve Won 38

31 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Marbella CH · 2018-03-26

R16

Marco Trungelliti #268

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #455

6-3 6-3

3 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 52

34 First Serve In 37

21 First Serve Won 19

9 Second Serve Won 4

1 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Marco Trungelliti — Last 10

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Last 10