ATP tennis predict — Marco Cecchinato vs Nick Hardt

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

65.20%

Nick Hardt

Dominican Rep.

34.80%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.81

Market probability

66.90% / 33.10%

Why This Prediction?

Marco Cecchinato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1718 vs 1619), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1727 vs 1644) and a stronger serve (66.6% vs 54.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1717.8 Elo 1618.8

1726.5 Elo (surface) 1643.8

307 Wins (Challenger) 85

304 Wins (surface) 63

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.918 Dominance ratio 1.160

170 Rank 273

33.9 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Cecchinato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nick Hardt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Cecchinato Nick Hardt

1st Serve In %

63.4%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

59.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.6%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Cecchinato Nick Hardt

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

42.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.1%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.3%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.3%

42.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Cecchinato 0 – 0 Nick Hardt

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Marco Cecchinato #166

Nick Hardt #284

4-6 6-0 6-3

0 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 5

90 Service Points 75

54 First Serve In 47

30 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 13

10 Break Points Saved 4

16 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

1. round

Marco Cecchinato #170

Nick Hardt #273

6-3 7-5

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Marco Cecchinato vs Nick Hardt — Prediction