ATP tennis predict — Marco Cecchinato vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

54.69%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

45.31%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.36

Market probability

60.51% / 39.49%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1752.8 Elo 1751.6

1746.5 Elo (surface) 1751.7

312 Wins (Challenger) 75

309 Wins (surface) 50

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.986 Dominance ratio 0.881

163 Rank 259

34.0 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marco Cecchinato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Cecchinato Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

63.4%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.6%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marco Cecchinato Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.1%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.3%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.3%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marco Cecchinato 0 – 0 Marvin Moeller

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Marco Cecchinato #163

Marvin Moeller #259

7-6 6-7 6-2

2 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

42 First Serve Won 39

29 Second Serve Won 24

8 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Marco Cecchinato vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction