ATP tennis predict — Marat Sharipov vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Marat Sharipov

Russia

47.86%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

52.14%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.65

Market probability

43.65% / 56.35%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1736.7 Elo 1764.9

1731.0 Elo (surface) 1752.8

54 Wins (Challenger) 138

45 Wins (surface) 122

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.005 Dominance ratio 1.044

364 Rank 230

23.9 Age 32.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marat Sharipov Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

52.3%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.9%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

14.3%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.9%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.50

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.0%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

81.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

18.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.6%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marat Sharipov Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marat Sharipov 0 – 1 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-13

F

Ilya Ivashka #393

Marat Sharipov #442

6-4 3-6 7-6

7 Aces 13

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

50 First Serve Won 54

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Marat Sharipov vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction