ATP tennis predict — Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

52.84%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

47.16%

Average Odds

2.62 / 1.46

Market probability

35.78% / 64.22%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1648.1 Elo 1584.0

1657.4 Elo (surface) 1584.2

9 Wins 23

7 Wins (surface) 11

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.027 Dominance ratio 1.064

253 Rank 149

23.1 Age 20.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

59.8%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maks Kasnikowski 0 – 0 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

Maks Kasnikowski #253

7-6 4-6 6-4

6 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 5

113 Service Points 114

61 First Serve In 64

42 First Serve Won 47

29 Second Serve Won 26

6 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 11

47 Winners 37

22 Unforced Errors 17

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction