ATP tennis predict — Maks Kasnikowski vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · SF 11:30

Predicted probability

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

45.89%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

54.11%

Average Odds

1.87 / 1.85

Market probability

49.73% / 50.27%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1714.5 Elo 1777.3

1665.8 Elo (surface) 1750.3

110 Wins (Challenger) 31

67 Wins (surface) 31

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 1.032

258 Rank 312

23.2 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

59.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maks Kasnikowski 0 – 0 Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #312

Maks Kasnikowski #258

7-6 6-4

1 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

30 First Serve Won 34

10 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Maks Kasnikowski vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction