ATP tennis predict — Maks Kasnikowski vs Eero Vasa

Challenger Clay Tampere challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

79.50%

Eero Vasa

Finland

20.50%

Average Odds

1.15 / 4.99

Market probability

81.27% / 18.73%

Why This Prediction?

Maks Kasnikowski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1486), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1648 vs 1512) and a stronger serve (68.6% vs 59.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1661.7 Elo 1485.9

1647.9 Elo (surface) 1512.3

103 Wins (Challenger) 22

41 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.210 Dominance ratio 0.888

247 Rank 486

23.0 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Eero Vasa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Eero Vasa

1st Serve In %

59.8%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

41.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Eero Vasa

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

34.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

53.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maks Kasnikowski 0 – 0 Eero Vasa

Clay Tampere challenger · 2026-07-22

R16

Maks Kasnikowski #247

Eero Vasa #486

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 40

33 First Serve In 25

20 First Serve Won 20

14 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.0

Maks Kasnikowski vs Eero Vasa — Prediction