ATP tennis predict — Maks Kasnikowski vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · R16 15:45

Predicted probability

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

64.70%

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

35.30%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.16

Market probability

56.84% / 43.16%

Why This Prediction?

Maks Kasnikowski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1644 vs 1556), a higher Elo rating (1644 vs 1588) and a stronger return game (40.6% vs 34.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1644.5 Elo 1587.7

1643.8 Elo (surface) 1555.9

107 Wins (Challenger) 31

64 Wins (surface) 10

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.093 Dominance ratio 0.915

258 Rank 395

23.2 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Alejo Sanchez Quilez

1st Serve In %

59.8%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

36.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maks Kasnikowski Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

33.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maks Kasnikowski 0 – 0 Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Alejo Sanchez Quilez #395

Maks Kasnikowski #258

7-5 7-6

1 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 2

81 Service Points 82

48 First Serve In 48

30 First Serve Won 37

19 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Maks Kasnikowski vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez — Prediction