ATP tennis predict — Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Yibing Wu

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

38.44%

Yibing Wu

China

61.56%

Average Odds

2.61 / 1.46

Market probability

35.87% / 64.13%

Why This Prediction?

Yibing Wu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1743 vs 1593) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1653 vs 1600).

Player Comparison

1593.2 Elo 1742.7

1600.4 Elo (surface) 1653.4

180 Wins 51

128 Wins (surface) 43

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.995 Dominance ratio 1.090

144 Rank 116

31.3 Age 26.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Yibing Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Yibing Wu

1st Serve In %

63.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Yibing Wu

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.8%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mackenzie Mcdonald 0 – 0 Yibing Wu

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Yibing Wu #116

Mackenzie Mcdonald #144

7-6 1-6 7-5

9 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 6

100 Service Points 114

62 First Serve In 71

49 First Serve Won 46

18 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 11

18 Winners 33

40 Unforced Errors 56

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Yibing Wu — Prediction