ATP tennis predict — Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Ryan Nijboer

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

52.18%

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

47.82%

Average Odds

1.99 / 1.75

Market probability

46.79% / 53.21%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1756.3 Elo 1576.1

1526.4 Elo (surface) 1611.5

136 Wins (Challenger) 53

6 Wins (surface) 49

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.013 Dominance ratio 0.861

169 Rank 417

31.5 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Ryan Nijboer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Ryan Nijboer

1st Serve In %

63.7%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Ryan Nijboer

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

68.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.2%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mackenzie Mcdonald and Ryan Nijboer have never played each other.

Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Ryan Nijboer — Prediction