ATP tennis predict — Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Edas Butvilas

ATP Hard Washington · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

58.66%

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

41.34%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.36

Market probability

60.82% / 39.18%

Why This Prediction?

Mackenzie Mcdonald is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1467), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1611 vs 1561) and more wins on hard courts (127 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1604.1 Elo 1467.0

1611.3 Elo (surface) 1560.6

179 Wins 7

127 Wins (surface) 3

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.884 Dominance ratio 1.017

140 Rank 233

31.3 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Edas Butvilas

1st Serve In %

63.7%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mackenzie Mcdonald Edas Butvilas

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.8%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

46.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mackenzie Mcdonald 0 – 0 Edas Butvilas

Hard Washington · 2026-07-25

qualification - 1. round

Mackenzie Mcdonald #140

Edas Butvilas #233

3-6 6-3 6-4

1 Aces 10

3 Double Faults 1

73 Service Points 81

39 First Serve In 47

27 First Serve Won 34

22 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Edas Butvilas — Prediction