ATP tennis predict — Lukas Neumayer vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

65.38%

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Italy

34.62%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.52

Market probability

73.33% / 26.67%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1724 vs 1601), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1723 vs 1608) and a stronger serve (66.9% vs 55.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1724.0 Elo 1601.3

1722.9 Elo (surface) 1607.7

118 Wins (Challenger) 16

108 Wins (surface) 16

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.846 Dominance ratio 0.960

183 Rank 438

24.0 Age 21.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lukas Neumayer Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

1st Serve In %

62.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

58.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.07

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

57.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.3%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lukas Neumayer Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

37.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

75.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

53.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lukas Neumayer 1 – 0 Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Lukas Neumayer #183

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #438

0-6 6-4 6-1

2 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 26

15 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Clay Split CH · 2026-03-23

R32

Lukas Neumayer #227

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #606

7-6(4) 6-3

2 Aces 9

0 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 68

46 First Serve In 51

38 First Serve Won 38

14 Second Serve Won 7

5 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lukas Neumayer vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano — Prediction