ATP tennis predict — Lukas Neumayer vs Alexander Weis

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 12:45

Predicted probability

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

73.90%

Alexander Weis

Italy

26.10%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.21

Market probability

77.82% / 22.18%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1650 vs 1537), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1665 vs 1545) and a stronger return game (38.1% vs 34.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1649.8 Elo 1537.1

1664.9 Elo (surface) 1545.0

113 Wins (Challenger) 59

103 Wins (surface) 59

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.977 Dominance ratio 0.778

169 Rank 594

23.9 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexander Weis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lukas Neumayer Alexander Weis

1st Serve In %

62.8%

54.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

16.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

37.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

62.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.3%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lukas Neumayer Alexander Weis

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

53.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lukas Neumayer 0 – 0 Alexander Weis

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Lukas Neumayer #169

Alexander Weis #594

6-2 6-4

0 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 45

30 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Lukas Neumayer vs Alexander Weis — Prediction