ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Yi Zhou

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

41.86%

Yi Zhou

China

58.14%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.65

Market probability

43.65% / 56.35%

Why This Prediction?

Yi Zhou is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1557 vs 1548), more wins on hard courts (38 vs 6) and a stronger return game (39.9% vs 34.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1548.4 Elo 1557.1

1569.1 Elo (surface) 1527.5

52 Wins (Challenger) 44

6 Wins (surface) 38

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 1.097

278 Rank 232

26.3 Age 21.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Yi Zhou

1st Serve In %

53.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Yi Zhou

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.9%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic 0 – 0 Yi Zhou

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-22

R16

Luka Pavlovic #278

Yi Zhou #232

6-4 7-6

8 Aces 15

0 Double Faults 6

63 Service Points 83

44 First Serve In 46

33 First Serve Won 38

13 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 9

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Luka Pavlovic vs Yi Zhou — Prediction