ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Tristan Schoolkate

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 06:40

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

43.36%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

56.64%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.55

Market probability

39.74% / 60.26%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Schoolkate is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1701 vs 1655), a higher Elo rating (1736 vs 1666) and more wins on hard courts (103 vs 14).

Player Comparison

1665.9 Elo 1735.7

1655.5 Elo (surface) 1700.6

60 Wins (Challenger) 122

14 Wins (surface) 103

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 1.009

207 Rank 155

26.5 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

53.8%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

36.2%

43.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

51.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

32.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic and Tristan Schoolkate have never played each other.

Luka Pavlovic vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction