ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Thomas Fancutt

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

82.64%

Thomas Fancutt

Australia

17.36%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.72

Market probability

74.85% / 25.15%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1450), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1618 vs 1441) and a stronger serve (63.9% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1644.7 Elo 1450.5

1617.8 Elo (surface) 1440.9

58 Wins (Challenger) 45

12 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.795

207 Rank 697

26.5 Age 31.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Thomas Fancutt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Thomas Fancutt

1st Serve In %

53.8%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

17.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

16.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Thomas Fancutt

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

61.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

21.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic and Thomas Fancutt have never played each other.

Luka Pavlovic vs Thomas Fancutt — Prediction