ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Takuya Kumasaka

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

54.39%

Takuya Kumasaka

Japan

45.61%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.00

Market probability

68.97% / 31.03%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1531.3 Elo 1495.3

1535.9 Elo (surface) 1506.4

51 Wins (Challenger) 23

5 Wins (surface) 23

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.913 Dominance ratio 1.014

278 Rank 514

26.3 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Takuya Kumasaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Takuya Kumasaka

1st Serve In %

53.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.84

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Takuya Kumasaka

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.9%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic 0 – 0 Takuya Kumasaka

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Luka Pavlovic #278

Takuya Kumasaka #514

3-6 6-1 6-2

1 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

72 Service Points 58

44 First Serve In 37

26 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 15

7 Break Points Saved 0

11 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3

Luka Pavlovic vs Takuya Kumasaka — Prediction