ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

54.80%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

45.20%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.91

Market probability

51.21% / 48.79%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1568.0 Elo 1569.1

1600.5 Elo (surface) 1562.4

53 Wins (Challenger) 17

7 Wins (surface) 16

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 0.993

278 Rank 309

26.3 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

53.7%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

31.9%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-24

QF

Luka Pavlovic #278

Mert Alkaya #309

6-1 6-2

4 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 5

37 Service Points 43

23 First Serve In 25

20 First Serve Won 14

8 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Luka Pavlovic vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction