ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

54.25%

Keegan Smith

USA

45.75%

Average Odds

1.97 / 1.76

Market probability

47.18% / 52.82%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1587.0 Elo 1591.9

1631.8 Elo (surface) 1543.3

54 Wins (Challenger) 105

8 Wins (surface) 95

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.051 Dominance ratio 0.791

278 Rank 209

26.3 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

53.7%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

31.9%

29.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic 0 – 0 Keegan Smith

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-25

SF

Luka Pavlovic #278

Keegan Smith #209

6-2 7-6

5 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 79

33 First Serve In 55

30 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smith — Prediction