ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Kangyuan Shi

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - round of 16 07:00

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

85.76%

Kangyuan Shi

China

14.24%

Average Odds

1.05 / 9.00

Market probability

89.55% / 10.45%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1654 vs 1537), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1634 vs 1542) and more career match wins (59 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1653.6 Elo 1537.0

1633.6 Elo (surface) 1541.7

59 Wins (Challenger) 1

13 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.898

207 Rank -

26.5 Age 19.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kangyuan Shi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Kangyuan Shi

1st Serve In %

53.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.80

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Kangyuan Shi

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

0.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic and Kangyuan Shi have never played each other.

Luka Pavlovic vs Kangyuan Shi — Prediction