ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

61.44%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

38.56%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.33

Market probability

71.77% / 28.23%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1634 vs 1420), a stronger serve (63.9% vs 60.4% of service points won) and a better head-to-head record against Juan Pablo Varillas (1-0).

Player Comparison

1585.8 Elo 1656.9

1633.8 Elo (surface) 1420.2

5 Wins 62

2 Wins (surface) 10

5 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.810 Dominance ratio 0.930

207 Rank 236

26.4 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

53.7%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.9%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic 1 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Luka Pavlovic #203

Juan Pablo Varillas #232

6-3 6-7 7-5

18 Aces 2

15 Double Faults 6

118 Service Points 136

61 First Serve In 66

50 First Serve Won 48

26 Second Serve Won 32

7 Break Points Saved 12

9 Break Points Faced 16

53 Winners 21

55 Unforced Errors 31

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Clay Mexico City CH · 2025-04-07

QF

Luka Pavlovic #295

Juan Pablo Varillas #251

6-3 0-6 6-4

10 Aces 2

11 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 75

38 First Serve In 35

28 First Serve Won 23

28 Second Serve Won 21

8 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction