ATP tennis predict — Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 08:15

Predicted probability

Luka Pavlovic

France

25.01%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

74.99%

Average Odds

2.75 / 1.42

Market probability

34.05% / 65.95%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1895 vs 1628), a higher Elo rating (1863 vs 1653) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 60.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1653.1 Elo 1862.5

1628.5 Elo (surface) 1895.0

6 Wins 0

3 Wins (surface) 0

6 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.802 Dominance ratio 0.952

205 Rank 152

26.5 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

53.7%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Pavlovic Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

29.8%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin have never played each other.

Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction