ATP tennis predict — Luka Mikrut vs Sumit Nagal

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

72.08%

Sumit Nagal

India

27.92%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.80

Market probability

75.40% / 24.60%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1848 vs 1707), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1904 vs 1721) and a stronger serve (64.8% vs 56.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1848.5 Elo 1707.1

1904.5 Elo (surface) 1721.4

68 Wins (Challenger) 223

61 Wins (surface) 173

12 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.032 Dominance ratio 0.882

167 Rank 253

22.5 Age 29.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Mikrut Sumit Nagal

1st Serve In %

59.6%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

61.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

38.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

36.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

40.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Mikrut Sumit Nagal

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.9%

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.6%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Mikrut 2 – 0 Sumit Nagal

Clay Braga challenger · 2026-10-07

1. round

Luka Mikrut #167

Sumit Nagal #253

6-2 6-4

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 20

5 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Clay Braga CH · 2025-09-29

QF

Luka Mikrut #239

Sumit Nagal #289

5-7 6-1 7-6(8)

3 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

111 Service Points 100

53 First Serve In 72

38 First Serve Won 45

30 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luka Mikrut vs Sumit Nagal — Prediction