ATP tennis predict — Luka Mikrut vs Carlo Alberto Caniato

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · F 16:00

Predicted probability

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

59.25%

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

40.75%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.37

Market probability

60.77% / 39.23%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1902 vs 1785), a higher Elo rating (1831 vs 1769) and a better head-to-head record against Carlo Alberto Caniato (1-0).

Player Comparison

1830.6 Elo 1768.9

1902.3 Elo (surface) 1785.4

64 Wins (Challenger) 29

57 Wins (surface) 27

12 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.032 Dominance ratio 1.626

214 Rank 386

22.4 Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Mikrut Carlo Alberto Caniato

1st Serve In %

59.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.41

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

74.6%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

47.7%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

69.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luka Mikrut Carlo Alberto Caniato

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

28.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luka Mikrut 1 – 0 Carlo Alberto Caniato

Clay Como CH · 2025-08-25

R16

Luka Mikrut #340

Carlo Alberto Caniato #492

1-6 6-3 6-2

6 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 4

80 Service Points 63

42 First Serve In 47

35 First Serve Won 36

16 Second Serve Won 4

6 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luka Mikrut vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Prediction