ATP tennis predict — Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Luis Guto Miguel

Brazil

70.82%

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Bolivia

29.18%

Average Odds

1.03 / 1.03

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Luis Guto Miguel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1621 vs 1554), a higher Elo rating (1637 vs 1538) and a stronger serve (61.3% vs 53.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1636.9 Elo 1537.8

1620.7 Elo (surface) 1553.8

10 Wins (Challenger) 116

7 Wins (surface) 116

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.031 Dominance ratio 1.024

- Rank 407

17.6 Age 29.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luis Guto Miguel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luis Guto Miguel Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

1st Serve In %

66.9%

69.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

57.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.5%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

38.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.0%

66.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luis Guto Miguel Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

55.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luis Guto Miguel 0 – 1 Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Clay Porto Alegre CH · 2025-04-28

R32

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #222

Luis Guto Miguel

6-2 3-6 6-3

2 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 4

90 Service Points 84

51 First Serve In 50

31 First Serve Won 29

24 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Luis Guto Miguel — Last 10

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco — Last 10