ATP tennis predict — Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · qualification - round of 16 23:00

Predicted probability

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Mexico

18.09%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

81.91%

Average Odds

2.53 / 1.46

Market probability

36.59% / 63.41%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1608 vs 1405), a higher Elo rating (1600 vs 1451) and more wins on hard courts (116 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1451.2 Elo 1600.3

1405.0 Elo (surface) 1607.8

2 Wins (Challenger) 127

0 Wins (surface) 116

2 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.753 Dominance ratio 1.280

838 Rank 213

22.0 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

61.8%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

67.6%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.4%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.2%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 0 – 0 Rio Noguchi

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-18

qualification - round of 16

Rio Noguchi #213

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes #838

7-6 4-6 6-1

4 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

133 Service Points 88

87 First Serve In 50

44 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 11

13 Break Points Saved 0

21 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction