ATP tennis predict — Lui Maxted vs Lucas Poullain

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · SF 12:10

Predicted probability

Lui Maxted

Great Britain

45.69%

Lucas Poullain

France

54.31%

Average Odds

2.02 / 1.73

Market probability

46.13% / 53.87%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1582.6 Elo 1702.8

1595.0 Elo (surface) 1670.6

10 Wins (Challenger) 69

7 Wins (surface) 59

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.057 Dominance ratio 1.083

403 Rank 369

22.7 Age 30.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lui Maxted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lui Maxted Lucas Poullain

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

69.9%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lui Maxted Lucas Poullain

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

54.1%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lui Maxted 0 – 0 Lucas Poullain

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-21

SF

Lucas Poullain #369

Lui Maxted #403

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 0

51 Service Points 50

35 First Serve In 39

25 First Serve Won 29

2 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Lui Maxted vs Lucas Poullain — Prediction