ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

37.84%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

62.16%

Average Odds

2.94 / 1.40

Market probability

32.26% / 67.74%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1965 vs 1821), more wins on hard courts (260 vs 23) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1975.6 Elo 2022.3

1821.0 Elo (surface) 1964.7

98 Wins 432

23 Wins (surface) 260

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.109 Dominance ratio 0.918

21 Rank 43

24.6 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–5L · 61.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

57.0%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

41.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

72.0%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 0 – 1 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Grass Halle · 2025-06-16

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #25

Luciano Darderi #56

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)

11 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 2

95 Service Points 86

62 First Serve In 60

46 First Serve Won 49

20 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction