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Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

40.75%

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

59.25%

Average Odds

1.59  /  2.34

Market probability

59.54%  /  40.46%

Why This Prediction?

Rinky Hijikata is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (76 vs 1), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1588 vs 1541) and a stronger serve (62.8% vs 61.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1780.9 Elo 1743.7
1540.8 Elo (surface) 1588.0
93 Wins 92
18 Wins (surface) 67
9 Last 15 form 8
2 Head-to-head wins 1
0.828 Dominance ratio 1.007
22 Rank 93
24.5 Age 25.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rinky Hijikata

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Rinky Hijikata

1st Serve In %

58.3%
57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%
71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%
49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%
28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%
51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.77
0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30
0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%
56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%
65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%
47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%
28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%
48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41
0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Rinky Hijikata

Break Points Saved %

68.8%
57.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%
43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%
57.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%
54.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 2 – 1 Rinky Hijikata

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

2. round

Rinky Hijikata #93

Luciano Darderi #22

6-4 6-2
2 Aces 10
1 Double Faults 2
53 Service Points 49
36 First Serve In 28
20 First Serve Won 21
12 Second Serve Won 16
3 Break Points Saved 0
6 Break Points Faced 0
10 Winners 30
17 Unforced Errors 18
2.3 Average Odds 1.6
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R64

Rinky Hijikata #117

Luciano Darderi #21

4-6 6-2 6-4
11 Aces 5
5 Double Faults 2
77 Service Points 94
39 First Serve In 55
31 First Serve Won 35
23 Second Serve Won 21
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

R128

Luciano Darderi #34

Rinky Hijikata #103

6-2 6-1 6-2
11 Aces 3
6 Double Faults 5
62 Service Points 68
35 First Serve In 36
33 First Serve Won 23
15 Second Serve Won 11
0 Break Points Saved 2
0 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

R128

Luciano Darderi #40

Rinky Hijikata #78

6-3 7-6(6) 6-1
10 Aces 0
3 Double Faults 3
93 Service Points 108
57 First Serve In 68
44 First Serve Won 45
23 Second Serve Won 16
2 Break Points Saved 14
3 Break Points Faced 18
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Luciano Darderi — Last 10

L W W W L W L L W W

Rinky Hijikata — Last 10

L L W W L W W L L L