ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

29.80%

Juncheng Shang

China

70.20%

Average Odds

1.96 / 1.84

Market probability

48.42% / 51.58%

Why This Prediction?

Juncheng Shang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1709 vs 1473), more wins on hard courts (30 vs 1) and a stronger serve (62.4% vs 59.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1768.5 Elo 1727.8

1472.6 Elo (surface) 1709.2

91 Wins 67

16 Wins (surface) 54

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.722 Dominance ratio 0.756

22 Rank 281

24.5 Age 21.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Juncheng Shang

1st Serve In %

58.3%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

54.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Juncheng Shang

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

51.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 0 – 0 Juncheng Shang

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

3. round

Luciano Darderi #22

Juncheng Shang #281

4-6 6-1 6-4

8 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

77 Service Points 86

44 First Serve In 56

37 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12

18 Winners 30

19 Unforced Errors 41

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang — Prediction