ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

31.70%

Harry Wendelken

Great Britain

68.30%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.43

Market probability

72.21% / 27.79%

Why This Prediction?

Harry Wendelken is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1727 vs 1540) and more wins on hard courts (42 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1764.4 Elo 1648.0

1539.7 Elo (surface) 1726.7

94 Wins 5

19 Wins (surface) 3

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.942 Dominance ratio 0.905

22 Rank 196

24.5 Age 24.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Harry Wendelken

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Harry Wendelken

1st Serve In %

58.3%

54.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Harry Wendelken

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

68.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 0 – 0 Harry Wendelken

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Luciano Darderi #22

Harry Wendelken #196

6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5

15 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 7

150 Service Points 127

85 First Serve In 61

55 First Serve Won 39

35 Second Serve Won 31

13 Break Points Saved 13

17 Break Points Faced 20

43 Winners 54

45 Unforced Errors 53

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken — Prediction