ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 03:55

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

22.21%

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

77.79%

Average Odds

2.27 / 1.63

Market probability

41.79% / 58.21%

Why This Prediction?

Gabriel Diallo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1758 vs 1430), a stronger serve (66.0% vs 59.6% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (62 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1757.5 Elo 1729.9

1430.3 Elo (surface) 1758.4

90 Wins 75

15 Wins (surface) 49

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.755 Dominance ratio 0.990

22 Rank 108

24.5 Age 24.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gabriel Diallo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Gabriel Diallo

1st Serve In %

58.3%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

75.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

55.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

79.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

58.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Gabriel Diallo

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

41.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

65.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 0 – 0 Gabriel Diallo

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Luciano Darderi #22

Gabriel Diallo #108

6-4 2-3

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 4

38 Service Points 45

22 First Serve In 27

18 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 1

10 Winners 10

16 Unforced Errors 17

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo — Prediction