ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

69.52%

Dane Sweeny

Australia

30.48%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.79

Market probability

74.90% / 25.10%

Why This Prediction?

Luciano Darderi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1784 vs 1604), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1603 vs 1528) and more aces per game (0.21 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1784.3 Elo 1604.2

1603.2 Elo (surface) 1528.2

96 Wins 26

21 Wins (surface) 23

9 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.978 Dominance ratio 1.140

22 Rank 123

24.6 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Dane Sweeny

1st Serve In %

58.3%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Dane Sweeny

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 1 – 0 Dane Sweeny

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Luciano Darderi #22

Dane Sweeny #123

6-4 6-3 6-3

7 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 83

50 First Serve In 48

36 First Serve Won 26

25 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 8

26 Winners 23

26 Unforced Errors 33

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

Q2

Luciano Darderi #206

Dane Sweeny #246

7-5 1-6 6-1

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 4

75 Service Points 89

40 First Serve In 53

29 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny — Prediction