ATP tennis predict — Luciano Darderi vs Casper Ruud

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Luciano Darderi

Italy

24.40%

Casper Ruud

Norway

75.60%

Average Odds

3.19 / 1.34

Market probability

29.58% / 70.42%

Why This Prediction?

Casper Ruud is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1937 vs 1813), a higher Elo rating (2076 vs 1976) and more wins on hard courts (157 vs 22).

Player Comparison

1976.4 Elo 2075.9

1813.1 Elo (surface) 1937.0

97 Wins 352

22 Wins (surface) 157

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.109 Dominance ratio 1.149

19 Rank 21

24.6 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Casper Ruud

1st Serve In %

58.3%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

50.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.2%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

56.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luciano Darderi Casper Ruud

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

71.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

38.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luciano Darderi 0 – 1 Casper Ruud

Clay Rome Masters · 2026-05-06

SF

Casper Ruud #25

Luciano Darderi #20

6-1 6-1

3 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

42 Service Points 48

23 First Serve In 22

17 First Serve Won 13

12 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luciano Darderi vs Casper Ruud — Prediction