ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:30

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

69.40%

Tom Paris

France

30.60%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.24

Market probability

71.37% / 28.63%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1714 vs 1533), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1704 vs 1529) and a stronger return game (41.3% vs 33.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1714.5 Elo 1532.7

1704.2 Elo (surface) 1528.8

73 Wins (Challenger) 30

63 Wins (surface) 18

11 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 1

1.017 Dominance ratio 0.847

322 Rank 676

30.8 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Tom Paris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Tom Paris

1st Serve In %

—

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

78.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

65.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.7%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.7%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Tom Paris

Break Points Saved %

—

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.0%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 2 – 1 Tom Paris

Hard Cherbourg CH · 2026-03-09

R32

Lucas Poullain #421

Tom Paris #332

6-4 7-6(4)

2 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 81

59 First Serve In 53

39 First Serve Won 36

11 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Lille CH · 2025-02-03

R16

Tom Paris #511

Lucas Poullain #461

7-6(5) 6-3

3 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 0

70 Service Points 91

33 First Serve In 63

25 First Serve Won 37

17 Second Serve Won 12

6 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Orleans CH · 2023-09-25

Q1

Lucas Poullain #288

Tom Paris #907

3-6 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 87

60 First Serve In 49

39 First Serve Won 38

19 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain — Last 10

Tom Paris — Last 10