ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Max Basing

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

58.10%

Max Basing

Great Britain

41.90%

Average Odds

2.37 / 1.54

Market probability

39.39% / 60.61%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1598), a stronger return game (47.8% vs 36.0% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1624 vs 1604).

Player Comparison

1671.4 Elo 1598.5

1623.6 Elo (surface) 1603.5

66 Wins (Challenger) 20

56 Wins (surface) 17

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.240 Dominance ratio 0.893

369 Rank 248

30.7 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Max Basing

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Max Basing

1st Serve In %

—

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

55.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.9%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Max Basing

Break Points Saved %

—

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 0 – 0 Max Basing

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-17

1. round

Lucas Poullain #369

Max Basing #248

6-0 7-6

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 54

36 First Serve In 42

29 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 2

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Lucas Poullain vs Max Basing — Prediction