ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Kenta Miyoshi

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · QF 16:00

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

26.46%

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

73.54%

Average Odds

2.97 / 1.36

Market probability

31.41% / 68.59%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1702 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating (1691 vs 1615) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1614.6 Elo 1690.9

1549.3 Elo (surface) 1702.2

63 Wins (Challenger) 28

53 Wins (surface) 28

10 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.096 Dominance ratio 1.236

500 Rank -

30.7 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Kenta Miyoshi

1st Serve In %

—

45.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

36.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.9%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Kenta Miyoshi

Break Points Saved %

—

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

23.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 0 – 0 Kenta Miyoshi

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Lucas Poullain #500

Kenta Miyoshi #-

6-7 6-1 6-4

2 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 0

98 Service Points 81

69 First Serve In 53

50 First Serve Won 40

15 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Lucas Poullain vs Kenta Miyoshi — Prediction