ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · QF 13:10

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

48.35%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

51.65%

Average Odds

2.54 / 1.46

Market probability

36.50% / 63.50%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1732.9 Elo 1689.5

1722.5 Elo (surface) 1687.4

73 Wins (Challenger) 74

63 Wins (surface) 19

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.017 Dominance ratio 1.172

334 Rank 185

30.8 Age 20.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

—

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

53.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

—

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain and Joel Schwaerzler have never played each other.

Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction