ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · F 18:00

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

29.84%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

70.16%

Average Odds

2.70 / 1.42

Market probability

34.47% / 65.53%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1765 vs 1596), a stronger serve (67.7% vs 61.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1691 vs 1651).

Player Comparison

1651.5 Elo 1691.0

1596.1 Elo (surface) 1764.9

65 Wins (Challenger) 67

55 Wins (surface) 64

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.219 Dominance ratio 1.208

500 Rank 297

30.7 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

—

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.9%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

—

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 0 – 0 Ilia Simakin

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-09

F

Lucas Poullain #500

Ilia Simakin #297

5-7 6-2 6-3

2 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 109

68 First Serve In 78

41 First Serve Won 44

13 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 10

9 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Lucas Poullain vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction