ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Gijs Brouwer

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

59.72%

Gijs Brouwer

Netherlands

40.28%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.76

Market probability

75.20% / 24.80%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1714 vs 1610), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1704 vs 1618) and fewer double faults per game (0.07 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1714.5 Elo 1609.8

1704.2 Elo (surface) 1617.6

73 Wins (Challenger) 97

63 Wins (surface) 72

11 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.017 Dominance ratio 0.880

322 Rank 847

30.8 Age 30.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Gijs Brouwer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Gijs Brouwer

1st Serve In %

—

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.7%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.7%

39.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

36.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Gijs Brouwer

Break Points Saved %

—

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.0%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 1 – 0 Gijs Brouwer

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-08

SF

Lucas Poullain #500

Gijs Brouwer #1156

6-1 6-0

3 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

44 Service Points 34

32 First Serve In 24

26 First Serve Won 9

5 Second Serve Won 2

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Lucas Poullain vs Gijs Brouwer — Prediction