ATP tennis predict — Lucas Poullain vs Alexandr Binda

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 14:00

Predicted probability

Lucas Poullain

France

56.72%

Alexandr Binda

Italy

43.28%

Average Odds

1.50 / 2.47

Market probability

62.22% / 37.78%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1603 vs 1471), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1536 vs 1431) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1603.1 Elo 1470.8

1535.7 Elo (surface) 1431.0

62 Wins (Challenger) 25

52 Wins (surface) 22

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.082 Dominance ratio 1.100

500 Rank 571

30.7 Age 24.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Alexandr Binda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

42.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.9%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lucas Poullain Alexandr Binda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

40.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lucas Poullain 0 – 0 Alexandr Binda

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Lucas Poullain #500

Alexandr Binda #571

7-5 7-5

6 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 73

41 First Serve In 48

35 First Serve Won 36

14 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Lucas Poullain vs Alexandr Binda — Prediction