ATP tennis predict — Luca Wiedenmann vs Kai Wehnelt

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Luca Wiedenmann

Germany

35.49%

Kai Wehnelt

Germany

64.51%

Average Odds

2.32 / 1.54

Market probability

39.90% / 60.10%

Why This Prediction?

Kai Wehnelt is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1585 vs 1434), a higher Elo rating (1562 vs 1440) and a stronger serve (64.2% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1440.1 Elo 1562.2

1434.4 Elo (surface) 1585.1

4 Wins (Challenger) 33

4 Wins (surface) 23

4 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.934 Dominance ratio 0.906

524 Rank 632

28.4 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Wiedenmann

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kai Wehnelt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Wiedenmann Kai Wehnelt

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.2%

73.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Wiedenmann Kai Wehnelt

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Wiedenmann 0 – 0 Kai Wehnelt

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Luca Wiedenmann #530

Kai Wehnelt #611

6-4 4-0

3 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 10

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

16 First Serve Won 14

11 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.5

Luca Wiedenmann vs Kai Wehnelt — Prediction