ATP tennis predict — Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Luca Van Assche

France

50.30%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

49.70%

Average Odds

2.82 / 1.42

Market probability

33.49% / 66.51%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1714.5 Elo 1773.4

1756.7 Elo (surface) 1772.5

52 Wins 334

17 Wins (surface) 143

6 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.991 Dominance ratio 0.964

78 Rank 65

22.2 Age 35.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

60.7%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.1%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.8%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche 1 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-23

R16

Luca Van Assche #78

Pablo Carreno Busta #65

6-3 4-6 6-2

3 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 5

80 Service Points 73

57 First Serve In 49

36 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 8

23 Winners 26

36 Unforced Errors 41

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Hard Olbia CH · 2025-10-13

F

Luca Van Assche #238

Pablo Carreno Busta #104

7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-2

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 5

109 Service Points 132

65 First Serve In 82

41 First Serve Won 54

18 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 8

11 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction